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Quantum Randy Moss—An Introduction to Entanglement
[Update: This post from 2010 has been getting some renewed attention in response to Randy Moss’s mildly notorious statement in New Orleans. I’ve posted a follow-up with more recent data here: “Is Randy...
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Easy NFL Predictions, the SkyNet Way
In this post I briefly discussed regression to the mean in the NFL, as well as the difficulty one can face trying to beat a simple prediction model based on even a single highly probative variable....
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Yes ESPN, Professional Kickers are Big Fat Chokers
A couple of days ago, ESPN’s Peter Keating blogged about “icing the kicker” (i.e., calling timeouts before important kicks, sometimes mere instants before the ball is snapped). He argues that the...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 2/4 (a)(i)—Player Valuation and Conventional...
Dennis Rodman is a – perhaps the – classic hard case for serious basketball valuation analysis. The more you study him, the more you are forced to engage in meta-analysis: that is, examining the...
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Graph of the Day: Nostalgia
Perhaps Baseball is truly America’s Sport, but it didn’t take the title of “most written about” until the mid-1980’s: (Created with Google Books Ngram Viewer.)
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C.R.E.A.M. (Or, “How to Win a Championship in Any Sport”)
Does cash rule everything in professional sports? Obviously it keeps the lights on, and it keeps the best athletes in fine bling, but what effect does the root of all evil have on the competitive...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 2/4 (a)(ii)—Player Valuation and...
In my last post in this series, I outlined and criticized the dominance of gross points (specifically, points per game) in the conventional wisdom about player value. Of course, serious observers have...
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Graph of the Day: NBA Player Stats v. Team Differentials (Follow-Up)
In this post from my Rodman series, I speculated that “individual TRB% probably has a more causative effect on team TRB% than individual PPG does on team PPG.” Now, using player/team differential...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 2/4 (b)—With or Without Worm
I recently realized that if I don’t speed up my posting of this series, Rodman might actually be in the Hall of Fame before I’m done. Therefore, I’m going to post this section now, and Part 3 (which...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 3/4(a)—Just Win, Baby (in Histograms)
First off, congratulations to Dennis for making the Hall of Fame finalist list for 2011. The circumstances seem favorable to his making it, and if I had to guess I’d say he probably will. While his...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 3/4(b)—Rodman’s X-Factor
The sports analytical community has long used Margin of Victory or similar metrics as their core component for predicting future outcomes. In situations with relatively small samples, it generally...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 3/4(c)—Beyond Margin of Victory
In the conventional wisdom, winning is probably overrated. The problem ultimately boils down to information quality: You only get one win or loss per game, so in the short-run, great teams, mediocre...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 3/4(d)—Endgame: Statistical Significance
The many histograms in sections (a)-(c) of Part 3 reflect fantastic p-values (probability that the outcome occurred by chance) for Dennis Rodman’s win percentage differentials relative to other...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 4/4(a): All-Hall?
First of all, congrats to Dennis for his well-deserved selection as a 2011 Hall of Fame inductee—of course, I take full credit. But seriously, when the finalists were announced, I immediately...
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The Case for Dennis Rodman, Part 4/4(b): The Finale (Or, “Rodman v. Jordan 2”)
[ADDED: Unsurpisingly, this post has been getting a lot of traffic, which I assume includes a number of new readers who are unfamiliar with my “Case For Dennis Rodman.” So, for the uninitiated, I’d...
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Quick Take: Why Winning the NBA Draft Lottery Matters
Andres Alvarez (@NerdNumbers) tweeted the other day: “Opinion question. Does getting the #1 Pick in the Draft Lottery really up your odds at a title?” To which I responded, “Yes, and it’s not close.”...
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A Defense of Sudden Death Playoffs in Baseball
So despite my general antipathy toward America’s pastime, I’ve been looking into baseball a lot lately. I’m working on a three part series that will “take on” Pythagorean Expectation. But considering...
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Thoughts on the Packers Yardage Anomaly
In their win over Detroit on Sunday, Green Bay once again managed to emerge victorious despite giving up more yards than they gained. This is practically old hat for them, as it’s the 10th time that...
View ArticleStat Geek Smackdown 2012, Round 1: Odds and Ends
So in case any of you haven’t been following, the 2012 edition of the ESPN True Hoop Stat Geek Smackdown is underway. Now, obviously this competition shouldn’t be taken too seriously, as it’s roughly...
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Don’t Play Baseball With Bill Belichick
[Note: I apologize for missing last Wednesday and Friday in my posting schedule. I had some important business-y things going on Wed and then went to Canada for a wedding over the weekend.] Last week I...
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